As you may have heard, the British Public are due to vote on our membership of the European Union (EU) on June the 23rd. When this campaign began, I, like many, was convinced that there was only one possible result from this referendum, that being a vote to stay in. However, as the campaign has gone on, this certainty has turned into real genuine worry (or excitement depending on which way inclined you are) that Britain could actually leave the EU. Partly due to the weakness of Jeremy Corbyn’s stance on the issue weakening the Labour campaign, the scaremongering of David Cameron and the “In” Conservatives, and the general ineptness of the Liberal Democrats, the Remain campaign has failed to put forward what should have been the theoretically straight forward case why staying in would be better. Due to this weakness, and effectively battling the campaign on the Brexiters terms, it is looking more and more likely that Britain will vote Brexit. On this subject, what could a Brexit vote mean? Well here is a random but perfectly plausible prediction of what could happen in the first 500 days after the referendum vote.
Day 1: Britain announces the result on June 24th that its people have voted to leave the EU. The back pages are full on Nigel Farage swinging a pint claiming an ultimate victory. While the atmosphere in much metropolitan areas are somber, street parties are thrown in rural towns and villages. In the Conservative party some Brexit backing MP’s immediately call for Cameron’s resignation, which his office reject. As the day goes on the result will shake markets around Europe, the Pound drops in value dramatically, while the value of the Euro also falls.
Day 2: The Labour camp immediately blame Jeremy Corbyn for their voters not turning out enough to vote to “Remain”, as both 1950s headmaster lookalike Hilary Benn and Chuka Umunna launch leadership challenges towards Corbyn. With tighter voting restrictions and a damaged reputation, Corbyn limps to a narrow election victory over Umunna, albeit only on second preference ballets, leading his position of power within the Labour Party to have been shrunk and for him having to concede some policies to the old Blairites such as trident and the eradication of austerity, while John McDonnell loses his chancellorship to Umunna and other close Corbyn allies being replaced by Liz Kendell and Dan Jarvis.
Day 3: As it is confirmed that the English vote had taken Britain out of the EU while the Scottish vote on its own would have wanted to stay in on the EU, Nicola Sturgeon announces the intention for ANOTHER referendum on Scottish Independence, and sends Alex Salmond to the EU commission to negotiate the Scottish terms of entry to the EU if a referendum on independence is successful. Cameron outright rejects this, leading to protests throughout Scotland, by the end of the first week, 400,000 Scots sign a petition to issue a new referendum.
Day 5: As the aftershocks of Brexit continue to lead to early economic turmoil, Cameron announces that his puppet master George Osborne is preparing an emergency budget to deal with the early financial strain that Brexit had caused. Labour reiterate straight away that they will absolutely reject a budget of further austerity, making Osborne have to delay his budget by a week to rethink what will be done.
Day 11: The EU commission succumb to pressure from the aftermath of Brexit to allow European Parliament to start suggesting laws, promising a more “democratic future”.
Day 20: Osborne announces a budget attempting to pander to Labour-realising that many of the Brexiters inside his own party would reject a pro-remain budget whatever. This budget includes a U-turn on taking certain people out of inheritance tax, the creation of a progressive Mansion Tax and the rise of the highest rate of tax to 45P. However this budget also includes the abolishment of free bus passes, disabled benefit cuts and another attempt to abolish tax credits. This leads to satisfying nobody and parliament rejects this budget unanimously.
Day 23: George Osborne Resigns, but also in the news is a murder of two Polish immigrants, with the sign “Go back to Europe” nailed to them. This leads to mass protests throughout the country and rising tension between communities. The week ends with Nigel Farage’s house being egged and ten of Europe’s leaders condemning the rhetoric used by the “Out” campaign in the referendum.
Day 30: As Cameron has to announce that Britain has slipped into a recession as markets continue to be volatile, he attempts to instate ally and professional egg lookalike Sajid Javid as the new chancellor, this choice is instantly rejected by half of the Conservative Party, partly because of Javid’s weakness in previous government jobs but mainly because another pro-EU Tory was placed in a position to negotiate the exit.
Day 36: Liam Fox MP calls for a vote for no confidence in David Cameron and announces his intention to run against him in a leadership election. Fox turns out just to be a pawn for the former clown of London Boris Johnson, who announces his intention to run a day later. After realising he would lose the election, Cameron throws his weight behind Theresa May, the only real moderate in the race, sparking a bruising and bitter election fight.
Day 43: Local rural businesses sign a letter of complaint that they have found it harder to trade or make a profit in the last month, and blame the inaction from the government, caused by the leadership election and the rejection of Cameron’s course of action being rejected. The economy is now shrinking faster than at any point since before 2010.
Day 45: A poll for voting intention comes out showing that after the rise of violence against East European immigrants following the referendum and its newly found lack of purpose, UKIP had dropped behind the Lib Dems and on par with the Greens on 4 points, showing the first good result of the referendum.
Day 50: Boris Johnson is announced as the new Tory leader and PM. Brings in Michael Gove as the Deputy PM and Iain Duncan-Smith as Chancellor.
Day 60: Duncan-Smith’s first budget has the most emphasis on austerity than any other 21st century budget, announcing cuts in the NHS budget, benefits, tax credits and elderly bus passes among others. However, to follow the “Out” campaigns promise of £365 million a week savings for not being in the EU, the budget promises a £365 million investment in local businesses to subsidise the losses they were suffering (although ignoring that the money for it was actually being paid for by a planned sale of Lloyds Bank).
Day 63: Boris Johnson announces the implementation of his much loved Australian style immigration system, announcing its implementation will be only for those who can get jobs of at least £30,000 a year. Although every news outlet in the country (minus The Sun) manage to poke more holes in this policy than to the plot of The Dark Knight Rises, Boris celebrates it like the World Cup win, calling it “the biggest victory for Britainland since that Churchill fellow was about”.
Day 90: Johnson negotiates a trade deal with the EU without free movement, and celebrates it “as the biggest win since bongo Brazil land beat the frogs 7-1”. It sounds all well and good, until its revealed that on average goods from Europe, due to tariffs, will now be 15% more expensive, while goods sold to the EU would be 10% cheaper to buy for European industry.
Day 150: After a diminishing 150 days, the value of the pound finally stabilises, and the recession begins to ease. Despite the increase of unemployment by a million, Brexit advocates argue that it was all a big deal about nothing. Boris begins the start of a 3 week holiday in India, which he claims is an example of a trade mission which could be done outside the EU.
Day 180: Obama announces his intention not to meet Johnson while he is president. While Scottish government sign a separate, more favourable deal with the EU, with the view to accept them into the organisation if they can win a referendum of independence. This causes a constitutional crisis in the UK, as Gove demands that Sturgeon resigns over the controversy. An opinion poll is also released which also suggest that the Scots were this time in favour of independence.
Day 200: Football: and the loss of free movement hits the premier league, where Southampton fail to get a work permit for Italian striker Simone Zaza. Over the next two transfer window 30 transfers of European players to and from England are called off due to a lack of a work permit in the top two tiers, leading to the FA demanding the government to reconnect to European free movement for “sporting purposes”. Boris rejects this offer, even with ex PM David Cameron outrage over his favourite club West Brom United losing out on a new left-back.
Day 250: Scottish Government attempt to open up their immigration policy as the row between the Scottish and British government continue, now over a million Scots have signed the petition to have another referendum. The Labour Party accept that there is a mandate for a second referendum.
Day 288: The Johnson government finally allow the Scots to have a second referendum, to be scheduled for November 2017
Day 365: Unemployment finally stops falling and the economy begins to level out. However, the effects of higher prices, and austerity of the Boris Johnson led government and the dismantling of state services has led to people on average being £2,000 worse off.
Day 400: Although the economy is almost out of recession, another crisis has emerged. Johnson’s precious Australian Points style immigration system has led to a shortage of nurses, carers, and plumber and manual laborers arriving to help support the apparatus of the population. This becomes a particular problem for the NHS, who are suffering from massive shortages, with the average A&E waiting times up to a record 4 hours.
Day 450: In light to the upset of citizens over high prices of goods, the Johnson government renegotiate its EU trade deal. However, in this trade deal, the free movement of people clause has returned. Boris realises that with the fall of the amount of arriving immigrants which had acted as the backbone of society, exacerbated by many fleeing Britain for their homelands over the worry of the UK economy, the violence against immigrants and feeling unwelcome, the reinstatement of a freedom of movement would actually be advantage. However this leaves Britain in a position where it is paying more money to the EU than before, following EU policy, without the say that it had previously within it.
Day 480: The world is rocked by a financial crisis-and after the financial shock caused by the original Brexit, Britain is ill prepared to deal with it, Barclays near collapse while many smaller banks, such as TSB, do. However, unlike in the Brown era, when much of the banking sector was brought under control of the government, Johnson and chums don’t, and fail to minimize the damage.
Day 497: The Johnson government ask the EU for a bailout plan to help deal with the financial crisis, which is rejected because Britain are no longer part of the EU, hindsight shines on the whole of the British public.
Day 500: The Scots vote for independence, leaving the United Kingdom further crippled. In a separate vote on the same ballot, Scots vote to rejoin the EU, meaning Britain basically have broken up with its wife, developed a drinking problem, then found out its ex-wife had then got together with its brother.
Of course all of this is speculation, taking much of the fears I have like the lack of acknowledgement we need immigrants to keep the country running with an aging population, the fear of a staunch Tory government which would make David Cameron look like Karl Marx and the prospect of Scotland leaving the UK, BUT it is not out the question that at least one of these situations will happen. One thing is for sure, that in the short term the economy and people livelihoods would take a hit. I leave this was plea, don’t let any of this happen, and vote to remain in the European Union on June 23rd (or earlier if you have a postal vote).